Predicting how many papers to print
One extra tidbit from my interview with Murray Gaylord at The New York Times. In addition to his role as vice president for marketing, Gaylord also heads up the newspaper’s Consumer Insight Group, which studies Times Co. data, including print circulation and web analytics. He told me about a novel insight that has emerged from the group: One of their stats guys developed an algorithm to predict demand for tomorrow’s NYT by looking at today’s traffic to nytimes.com. Gaylord explained:
When there’s a big event that happens, and Spitzer is the example that we use, you get a big spike online, and then you know…you’re going to sell more copies at the newsstand the next day.
After the Times broke the Spitzer story online, their numbers guy said the Times should print 45,000 additional copies of the next day’s paper. “If you don’t print enough, you’re leaving money on the table,” Gaylord said, “and if you print too much, you’re losing money.” The Times hedged with 42,000 copies, which was about a thousand short of where the demand ultimately fell. Gaylord said the episode gave him confidence to use the algorithm for future big events like the election. I thought it was a good story because other penny-pinching newspapers might be able to copy the idea and make their expensive printing budget just a little more efficient.









Using this method, how did the NYT not anticipate the need for November 5, 2008 papers? Their DMA is 17million plus, how many extra did they print? half a million or less?
They could have printed one edition all night and into the day they could have printed 2.4million papers in 10 hours (60k imp/hr x 4 presses x 10hours running). The could have taken presses off line as demand waned during the day.
Heck, they could have just kept one press running and after the normal run was off been producing 60k issues per hour. (maybe this is what they did).
I remember walking through NY Penn station in the afternoon and there being NO Newspapers EXCEPT NY Daily News. They had stacks and stacks. They anticipated. hmmmm.. i’m going to follow up and see if i can get an interview with NY Daily News Circulation…
Thanks!