Let’s face it: Digital news publishers have little reason to feel optimistic heading into 2018. There’s no shortage of ominous headlines or hot takes from the pundits and media prognosticators who, despite the fact that digital advertising will surpass $90 billion in the U.S. in the coming year, are predicting more pain for publishers.
Only 15 years ago, before the hyper-migration to digital began and a wave of consolidation swept across the print media space, U.S.-based newspapers raked in $67 billion in advertising. As many traditional publishers and newsrooms began to transform their businesses (and continue to do so today), meaningful digital advertising growth proved elusive to most, simultaneously contending with both the fickle demands of the marketplace and having to support an inordinate number of online publishers, platforms, and adtech companies.
Then came along a slew of “digital natives,” backed largely by venture capitalists, and the promise to invent a new publishing model. They stood up modern websites, relied on the social web for content distribution, and chased audiences and advertising businesses that could flourish, free from the shackles of a legacy business. Or so they thought. In reality, what many of these startups succeeded in doing was to launch new media properties, in an already over-crowded space, and produce content the world never needed. If companies like Mic, NowThis News, or even BuzzFeed never existed, would the state of news and journalism in this country look any different?
It’s easy to blame the platform monopolies for publishers’ quandaries, but it’s time to also acknowledge that there are simply too many of us in the digital news space. Digital ad spending continues to soar, but the lion’s share remains hijacked by a handful of companies, and exceedingly, gets vacuumed into the programmatic abyss. But if there’s one silver lining, it’s this: For too long, an excessive number of VC-backed publishers and adtech companies have been able to survive by siphoning off the digital advertising hose. Those days are winding down, however, and 2018 will be a year of reckoning for many. We are already seeing it via reports of missed revenue forecasts, shrinking company valuations, big M&A activity, and of course, pivots!
In today’s digital news economy, either you are a buyer or a seller. It’s time to decide which you are, and act accordingly; getting caught somewhere in between means being dealt a knockout blow, and the VCs won’t pull you off the ropes. 2018 will be all about pivoting towards consolidation, and creating strength-in-numbers alliances. That’s likely a good thing, as it should open up wider lanes for many heritage-based news publishers to maneuver. Those who can look past the headlines and sprint towards the opportunities.
Michael Kuntz is president of advertising sales and brand partnerships for the USA Today Network.
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Mike Caulfield Refactoring media literacy for the networked age
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Taylor Lorenz Social and media will split
Jamie Mottram From pageviews to t-shirts
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Kim Fox Audience teams diversify their approach
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Tim Carmody Watch out for Spotify
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Damon Krukowski Reviving the alt-weekly soul
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Jarrod Dicker Honesty in advertising
Andrew Losowsky The year of resilience
Rachel Davis Mersey AI, with real smarts
Cindy Royal Your journalism curriculum is obsolete
Eric Nuzum Beyond the narrative arc
Tracie Powell The muting of underserved voices
Corey Johnson The pro-fact resistance
Pia Frey Address users as individuals
Jennifer Brandel and Mónica Guzmán The editorial meeting of the future
Jennifer Coogan The future is female
Carrie Brown-Smith Transparency finally takes off
Dheerja Kaur Fun with subscription products
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Jassim Ahmad Thriving on change
Amie Ferris-Rotman More female reporters abroad (please)
Rachel Schallom Better design helps differentiate opinion and news
Mario García Storytelling finally adapts to mobile
Brian Lam Sketchy ethics around product reviews
Ruth Palmer Risks will grow for news subjects — especially minorities
Pablo Boczkowski The rise of skeptical reading
Amy King Let’s amplify visual voice
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Tamar Charney We get serious about algorithms
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Ray Soto VR reaches the next level
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Evie Nagy Pivot to mobile video frustration
Trushar Barot The Jio-fication of India
Sam Ford The year of investing in processes
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Joanne McNeil Gatekeeping the gatekeepers
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Vanessa K. DeLuca Women’s voices take center stage
Julia Beizer A longer view on the pivot
Vivian Schiller Pivot to tomorrow
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Craig Newmark Working together toward sustainable solutions
Edward Roussel Eyes, ears, and brains
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Susie Banikarim R.I.P. Pivot to Video (2017–2017)
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L. Gordon Crovitz Serving readers over advertisers
Rodney Gibbs Tech workers turn to journalism
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Miguel Castro The arrival of the impact producer
Amy Webb Listen to weak signals
Luke O'Neil The end is already here
Kyle Ellis Let’s build our way out of this
Rick Berke Value is the watchword
Elizabeth Jensen Show your work
Matt DeRienzo A recession, then a collapse
Federica Cherubini The rise of bridge roles in news organizations
Dan Shanoff You down with OTT? (Yeah, DTC)
Juleyka Lantigua-Williams Women of color will reclaim and monetize our time
Mandy Velez texting is lit rn, fam
Richard J. Tofel The platforms’ power demands more reporters’ attention
Claire Wardle Disinformation gets worse
Christopher Meighan Passive partnership is in the rearview
Marcela Donini and Thiago Herdy Collaboration is the way forward for Brazilian journalism
Renée Kaplan The year of quiet adjustments (shhh)
Monique Judge Letting black women tell their own stories
Nushin Rashidian Publishers seek ad dollar alternatives
Raju Narisetti Mirror, mirror on the wall
An Xiao Mina Memes and visuals come to the fore
José Zamora Revenue-first journalism
Juliette De Maeyer A responsible press criticism
Umbreen Bhatti The trust problem isn’t new
Millie Tran and Stine Bauer Dahlberg (Hint: It’s about your brand)
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Will Sommer The year local media gets conservative
Kinsey Wilson Facebook and Google: Help out or pay up
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Julia B. Chan Looking for loyalty in all the right places
Marie Gilot No assholes allowed
Sara M. Watson Feeds will open up to new user-determined filters
Sarah Marshall Loyalty as the key performance indicator
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Steve Grove The midterms are an opportunity
Matt Boggie The intellectual equivalent of the Dead Sea
Nicholas Diakopoulos Fortifying social media from automated inauthenticity