Nieman Foundation at Harvard
HOME
          
LATEST STORY
How AJ+ embraces Facebook, autoplay, and comments to make its videos stand out
ABOUT                    SUBSCRIBE
Aug. 27, 2014, 11:16 a.m.
Business Models
LINK: blogs.wsj.com  ➚   |   Posted by: Joshua Benton   |   August 27, 2014

Nathalie Tadena in The Wall Street Journal:

Magna Global cut its forecast for U.S. advertising revenue growth this year to 5.1% from 6% on Tuesday, because ad spending the first half of the year was weaker than expected. But the Interpublic-owned media buying and research firm expects the ad market to bounce back in the second half of the year, and see its strongest growth rate in a decade in 2015.

[…]

On a normalized basis, television revenues are expected to grow 2.2% this year. Newspaper and magazine ad revenue are expected to decline 8.9% and 11% respectively, while digital ad revenues are expected to jump 17% this year to $50 billion. Radio sales are expected to contract 3% this year, a larger decline than last year. Outdoor media sales are projected to improve 1.7%, a slowdown compared to the mid-single digit growth rate seen in the past three years.

[…]

Meanwhile, the firm reduced its forecasts of TV ad revenue growth to 2.3% from 3.8% for 2015. Other traditional media formats will benefit from stronger overall ad growth, but will continue to lose market share and ad dollars to digital media next year. Newspaper and magazine ad sales are expected to fall 6.2% and 9.4%, respectively, in 2015. Meanwhile, radio ad sales will improve slightly at 0.5% and out-of-home will rise 3.4% in 2015, Magna Global projects.

For newspapers, continued print advertising declines will mean more pressure on circulation (print subscribers and paywalls) or new revenue (digital marketing services, events) to make up the difference. Most likely, they won’t, and we’ll see more cuts.

If the rate of print ad decline does slow in 2015 (from 8.9 percent down to 6.2 percent down), that would be…semi-good news, I guess, after several years of drops in the high single digits? But there’s nothing here to predict a leveling off, much less a return to growth.

And for all the attention newspapers’ troubles get, those magazine numbers are downright terrible — that’s a predicted 19.3 percent decline in two years’ time.

(“MAGNA GLOBAL is the strategic global media unit responsible for forecasts, insights and negotiation strategy across all media channels on behalf of Mediabrands. Part of Interpublic Group (NYSE: IPG), MAGNA works with the brands within these respective holding companies on behalf of their clients.”)

Show tags Show comments / Leave a comment
 
Join the 15,000 who get the freshest future-of-journalism news in our daily email.
How AJ+ embraces Facebook, autoplay, and comments to make its videos stand out
“We think a lot about whether a video works with the sound off. Do we have to subtitle it to keep the audience retention high? Do we need to use big fonts?”
“It’s like seeing your grandpa in a nightclub”: The New York Times’ challenge in building a digital brand
“Relevance is the Times’ big problem, not awareness. Plenty of people know about The New York Times. But most of them think we’re not for them.”
How The Washington Post built — and will be building on — its “Knowledge Map” feature
The Post is looking to create a database of “supplements” — categorized pieces of text and graphics that help give context around complicated news topics — and add it as a contextual layer across lots of different Post stories.
What to read next
1119
tweets
New Pew data: More Americans are getting news on Facebook and Twitter
A new study from the Pew Research Center and Knight Foundation finds that more Americans of all ages, races, genders, education levels, and incomes are using Twitter and Facebook to consume news.
797Newsonomics: The halving of America’s daily newsrooms
If you’re lucky enough to have the right deep-pocketed owner buy your paper and steady it, you’ve won the lottery. If you’re in a town whose paper is owned by the better chains, or committed local ownership, your loss will probably be mitigated. Otherwise, you’re out of luck.
698How 7 news organizations are using Slack to work better and differently
Here’s how Fusion, Vox, Quartz, Slate, the AP, The Times of London, and Thought Catalog are using Slack for workflow — and which features they wish the platform would add.
These stories are our most popular on Twitter over the past 30 days.
See all our most recent pieces ➚
Encyclo is our encyclopedia of the future of news, chronicling the key players in journalism’s evolution.
Here are a few of the entries you’ll find in Encyclo.   Get the full Encyclo ➚
Al Jazeera
The Christian Science Monitor
Chi-Town Daily News
Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism
National Review
ReadWrite
MSNBC
The Daily Beast
Bayosphere
Time
Upworthy
WyoFile