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Alan Mutter’s plan for newspapers is an industry-owned ad venture

When newspaper executives met in Chicago last week to discuss new business models for the industry, they expected to hear from Steve Brill about his well-publicized venture to charge for online content. But the executives were surprised by a last-minute addition to their agenda: Alan Mutter, a veteran newspaper editor and entrepreneur widely known as the Newsosaur.

Mutter and his business partner, Ridgely Evers, are pitching a targeted-advertising and e-commerce system that, in an intriguing twist, would be owned by the newspaper industry. They are, essentially, seeking venture capital from publishers “who would gain a permanent, preferred share in the future profits,” according to a two-page document distributed at the Chicago meeting. We obtained that briefing and called up Mutter to see what it was all about.

Behavioral targeting

“We just introduced this idea a week ago, and nobody really knew what we were doing until we got there,” Mutter told me in a long telephone conversation yesterday from San Francisco, where he has held camp since 1995. He described the core of their venture as an online advertising solution in which newspaper companies and other publishers would share data on the demographics and reading habits of individual users to serve highly targeted ads based on that information.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because plenty of ad networks do forms of behavioral targeting, which has long been considered a holy grail of advertising. Mutter readily conceded, “It’s not like we’re inventing electricity,” but said his venture, called ViewPass, would be different for several reasons.

Perhaps most importantly, if ViewPass is able to raise capital from newspaper companies, it would be an industry-owned company with higher profit potential. He contrasted that with Yahoo’s targeted-ad system, APT, which has gained popularity among local news sites but takes, according to Mutter, a roughly 50-percent cut of revenue. (In fairness, Yahoo provides a lot of its own traffic for those targeted ads as part of the arrangement.) “The industry needs to own its own data,” he said. (In a follow-up conversation after this post went up, Mutter noted he doesn’t view Yahoo as a competitor.)

Mutter also argued that by requiring readers to register with ViewPass, the system would have more and better information with which to serve targeted ads. ViewPass would then track reading behavior across all of its affiliated sites to learn more about individual users. Ads would be auctioned, so that companies could, for example, bid to serve an ad to a 33-year-old college graduate in Cambridge, Mass., who reads a lot of articles about politics and the New Orleans Saints. (Hi, Josh!)

In theory, that should cost more per impression than untargeted ads, but there are reasons to be skeptical. For one, there may not be enough competition for most targets (sorry, Josh) to achieve the kind of value that Google has created with its auctions for search keywords. Highly targeted ads on Facebook, for example, aren’t particularly expensive.

Seeking higher CPMs

I’ll stop there, however, because targeted advertising is not at all my expertise. It does seem that a system like ViewPass could have lots of potential for news sites that currently waste page views on extremely cheap remnant advertising. The random New Yorker who lands on the Wichita Eagle’s website is currently of little value to McClatchy, the Eagle’s corporate parent, but if the company knew more about that reader through ViewPass, it might be able to serve her a higher-priced ad.

“The ad would be relevant to the individual, not necessarily the content of the page that I’m looking at,” Mutter said.

Mutter told me that he and Ridgely have already assembled a technical team that could get the system up and running in nine months, but the first stage is raising capital. “We have been invited to come to see several publishers,” he said.

Charging for content

ViewPass will also include an e-commerce system for charging for content, although Mutter is skeptical of most paid-content models, like subscriptions and micropayments. He advocates charging for narrow pieces of content that have value to select readers. “Common sense says if people start getting charged for something that they used to get for free, that’s going to repel them,” he told me. “And if they can find something awfully close to that somewhere else, they won’t come back.”

He disputed the models presented at that same Chicago meeting by Brill, who claimed that newspapers could charge for parts of their websites while maintaining 88 percent of page views and 91 percent of ad revenue. “When a guy like Steve Brill says you won’t lose customers, I simply can’t replicate that math,” Mutter said.

I’m a big fan of Mutter’s blog and have previously turned to him for expertise on newspaper-industry finances. The options he and Brill presented in Chicago aren’t mutually exclusive, but it’ll be interesting to watch what kind of interest each one draws from the executives who were in that room.

UPDATE, 1:07 p.m.: Mutter has confirmed this news and offered his own explanation of ViewPass in a post at his blog.

                                   
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  • http://blog-o-blog.com Zac Echola

    I’m leery of Mutter’s common registration process. Why is that necessary? A good behavioral ad platform should have an API to feed it any data.

  • Ridgely Evers

    Thanks for the write-up, Zach.

    One point of clarification: ViewPass isn’t intended to replace or compete with the ad networks, but rather to provide them with enhanced (anonymous) data about each viewer.

    This will enable the Yahoos and Doubleclicks of the world to deliver better-targeted ads, resulting in better ad performance, and consequently delivering higher CPMs.

    That’s why we don’t consider Yahoo to be a competitor.

    See Alan’s post for more details: http://newsosaur.blogspot.com

  • John Cary

    It sounds like this a takeoff on, or expounding on the old Tacoda model or am I not following?

  • Zachary M. Seward

    John, I think Mutter and Evers would say that one key difference is Tacoda is owned by AOL and ViewPass would be owned by publishers. Other differences, I’ll leave to them.

    Zac, presumably the registration would be used to collect data that can’t be gleaned from reading habits, but your skepticism seems well-placed since readers have shown a clear disdain for registration of any sort on news sites.

    And, Ridgely, thanks for the clarification and link. —Zach

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  • http://toughloveforxerox.blogspot MichaelJ

    The model strikes me as similar to the well established model of VISA, owned by the banks.

    The particular advantage is that when combined with local distribution of paper advertising can move to enabling commerce instead of selling views. I would think that the prices a newspaper could charge for enabling trackable transactions might give them a huge pricing advantage. If an ad can be put into the cost of sales column it’s a game changer.

    One piece of tech I wanted to get on people’s radar is information rich QR codes. While still a sleeper, as the US gets up to speed on wireless broad band it’s a very neat way to collect information about reader’s behavior when they click their cell phone.

    Given that it will probably take a year to get this off the ground, it might be useful to put that into the plan.

  • SteveZ

    OK. The random New Yorker see’s an ad on the Witchita Eagle. Who get’s paid? The New York paper? Or the Witcita Eagle? Both papers are going to argue that they should get the revenue. Newspaper joint ventures to produce web services have been tried several times. None has been wildly successful. They have trouble resolving simple (but important) questions such as this.

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  • http://www.sellingselling.com Alan J. Zell, Attitudes for Selling

    If there is a hole in Mutter’s plan, it is that one never knows what a viewer/reader may find themself or that they know others are intersted in knowing about. So, one may target to indivuals who have specified their main interests when they sign up does not mean they will always have those interests or that others may come up. In our fast changing world, it is the unexpected that peaks new interests and creates demand.

    Sure, the chances are slim for making sales via “buckshot marketing” but if one does not put the buckshot into the air, how will one hit the moving target? It’s a case of “today I have no interest . . . tomorrow I may or I’ve learned other do.

    It’s not unlike reading any print publication. No one reads all the articles or adv. However, if something in the headline or beginning of an article or a word/term used in an adv meets what the reader/viewer has been thinking/talking about, they read it.

    What any publisher — on or off line — or writers and advertisers need to take into consideration is that they cannot expect what they publish or advertisers adv to do what they cannot possibly do.

  • http://blog-o-blog.com Zac Echola

    I get that they’re planning to use a common registration platform to glean information. That makes sense. But what doesn’t make sense is that they’re reinventing the wheel. If they want a federated login process, why not go with one of the standards: Facebook or OpenID and share the data on the backend?

    There’s a lot of data mining that can be done once you have user data (Though I’m skeptical many newspaper companies have the chops in mathematics to understand machine learning, natural language processing, semantics, association rule mining, etc.), but my broader point is more that there is absolutely zero reason to create a new registration platform. A single-sign on or a federated login process would be better while Mutter should focus on the core technology.

    And you can mine plenty (location, contextual relation to the content on the page, social meta data related to that page, etc.) without even needing registration. It’s not that complicated at all.

    But none of this yet answer the question of why a user would be willing to give up privacy? What are they getting of value in exchange here?

    Alan Zell is right, though I do think there’s lots of value in contextual/behavioral/socially-targeted advertising. Advertisers haven’t really seen the value in it yet. What good is a high CPM with nobody willing to pay the high CPM?

    Which brings me back to the math. I don’t think newspapers are going to be at the forefront of semantics and machine learning any time soon.

  • Zachary M. Seward

    MichaelJ, I think you’re right about the potential for true commerce here, but there’s a question of whether the auctions suggested by ViewPass could really work efficiently without Google’s scale.

    Good point, SteveZ. The histories of New Century Networks and Career Builder cast some doubt on the industry’s ability to collaborate.

    Alan, though I’m not familiar with the intricacies of targeted advertising, it sounds like you are, and that’s a reasonable critique. My boss Josh found an interesting study that suggests, if I’m reading it right, that targeting is much effective in the context of search than in tracking reader behavior. Sometimes a holy grail is just a cup.

    And, Zac, thanks for that explanation. It’s a good case, and I’ll see if I can get Mutter and/or Evers to respond. —Zach

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