Last year for the Nieman Lab prediction series, I created a video written and edited by AI about the impact that AI was going to have. I’ve spent a significant amount of time this year thinking through the applications of Generative AI.

I’d say 2023 was the year our industry spent absorbing the idea of generative AI and I suspect 2024 will be the year of execution. I imagine lots of other folks contributing predictions will touch on AI and its potential impacts on product, business, ethics, etc. So rather than add to the list (although I do have a growing list), I thought I’d offer predictions devoid of AI.

Organizing principles

1. Smaller and medium size media companies will increasingly convert to nonprofits. We can argue about whether this is a good or a bad trend, but it will continue. The latest example is Embarcadero Media.
2. We’ll continue to see a rise of reporters for commercial companies and industries. Example: Glassdoor’s report on generational workforce trends. Perhaps even NextDoor will hire a reporter.
3. Journalists and content creators will form decentralized collectives operating independently from traditional media institutions. See Sidechannel. These collectives will use digital platforms like Substack and Discord to distribute content directly to their audiences, funding their work through subscriptions, merchandise, donations, and community support.
4. A rise in “personal reporters” could occur, with journalists or small teams focusing on curating news for a specific individual or group, funded by a patron model.
5. With the need to cut costs and the increase in remote work, news organizations will establish virtual bureaus, reducing the need for physical offices. A co-working spot for journalists in D.C. is paid for by several large and competing news organizations. Technical.ly Philly has helped launch something in Philadelphia.
6. News organizations will launch educational platforms that use their archival content to offer historical context to current events, monetized through subscriptions or institutional partnerships.
7. News organizations will create crossover content that blends journalism with entertainment, such as mini-documentaries featuring celebrities discussing news topics. Check out First Look Studios.
8. In areas where news has been particularly hard-hit, local governments or philanthropic organizations may establish funds to revive or sustain journalism (Press Forward). There will be a revitalization of “civic media.”
9. The role of news archivists will grow within media organizations, ensuring historical news data is preserved, accessible, and used in current reporting. A partnership with libraries could be an “outsourcing” element.

Audience engagement

1. New metrics for measuring “news impact” on communities could be developed, moving beyond clicks and shares to assess how reporting affects real-world change. The ongoing “impact” movement pushes forward.
2. Multimedia content will become easier to produce and expected by the audience. Articles will regularly be accompanied by audio/podcasts, videos, and interactive graphics.
3. Local news organizations will infuse a sense of local pride into their reporting. While maintaining journalistic objectivity, they will highlight local successes and cultural events, bolstering community spirit and distinctiveness in their coverage, similar to recent initiatives by The Philadelphia Inquirer.
4. Media outlets will introduce gamification into their news apps and websites, offering points, badges, or rewards for engaging with content, sharing articles, or contributing to discussions.
5. There will be an expansion of news content designed for young people, with media companies creating child-friendly news platforms that explain complex global issues in an accessible manner. This will include news products aimed at high schoolers, mixing civic content with high school sports.
6. Local news outlets will become community hubs, offering spaces for public debate, workshops, and events that extend their role beyond news reporting to community building and support. Some cafés use “newsroom” in their branding — perhaps newsrooms can open cafés?
7. News organizations will engage audiences directly in investigative reporting by launching platforms where consumers can submit issues for investigation. This collaborative approach will empower readers and viewers to drive the news agenda, increasing transparency and accountability, and helping revenue as well.
8. News organizations will stream their editorial meetings and discussions, promoting transparency and audience engagement. (Check out Adriana Lacy’s take on audience engagement in newsrooms where she suggests “weekly editorial meetings or dedicated feedback sessions.”)
9. News platforms will use emotional analytics to understand how content affects audiences, and tailor experiences accordingly.
10. News organizations will offer data literacy programs to help audiences understand and interpret data-heavy stories. The industry does a lot to explain what misinformation is and what goes into fact-checking, and future efforts will need to encompass data interpretation into those efforts.
11. News styles, organizations, and platforms specifically designed for Gen Z will continue to emerge and grow, focusing on visual storytelling and issues relevant to younger demographics.
12. Some news organizations will adopt a collaborative approach to the public editor role, where readers can participate in the production of opinion pieces in real time, creating a community-driven editorial process. (Check out Linkedin’s Community Articles for a primer.)

Social media is still a thing

1. Direct news updates and briefings through messaging apps like WhatsApp and SMS/MMS will allowing for personalized news consumption and discussions. (Cough, cough.)
2. Meta will lean into anti-social media sentiment by pushing WhatsApp as an alternative. Smart publishers will remember “fool me twice” when it comes to who they partner with and why.
3. Individual TikTok content creators will increasingly become news sources. They’ll cover local events and underrepresented stories, leveraging their large followings and engagement to bring attention to news outside traditional channels.
4. TikTok content creators will go through the same rise and fall of being “authentic” vs. becoming “professionalized” that hits most organic social media phenomena once money allows for the space to be subsumed by the larger media industry.
5. As platforms like Twitter encounter challenges and shifts in user engagement, LinkedIn will capitalize on the opportunity to become a more prominent source for professional and industry-specific news. LinkedIn’s user base will turn it into a primary news feed for business and work-related content. This transition will be supported by LinkedIn’s existing infrastructure that encourages professional discourse and content sharing.
6. Individual journalists and reporters with strong personal brands will become “news influencers” within their organizations. Or a news organization will hire a content creator who made a name for themselves first on TikTok. (Think back to Reuters hiring the king of Tumblr.) This will create tension within some organizations.
7. Social platforms may introduce user-customizable algorithms, allowing individuals to adjust the variables that determine their news feeds, such as source diversity or story recency. The public understands algorithms and the impact they can have on their media consumption, so smart platforms will become transparent and give at least the illusion of control back to the user.
8. Open-source intelligence (OSINT) will become a mainstream tool in newsrooms. Journalists will routinely use OSINT techniques to gather evidence and verify facts, especially in conflict zones or regions where on-the-ground reporting is limited. News outlets will establish dedicated OSINT units and invest in training their journalists in digital investigation methods. This shift will lead to the rise of stories based on data and facts gathered from publicly available sources, including satellite images, social media, and other open platforms.
9. Large and overfunded media startups like The Messenger, BuzzFeed, and Vice will continue to struggle. Organizations built on the promise of forever-growing audiences on social media platforms will pivot or crash and burn while trying.
10. My evolving theory of the pendulum swing between audience/subscribers will continue. We will reach peak subscribers soon and the previous prediction will reverse as new startups look for ways to gain large, cheap audiences. This will lead to overpriced startups that steal talent and energy from the The Gray Lady, only for the dance to repeat as cheap/large audiences become less valuable than niche/valuable subscriber audiences. Sunrise/sunset.

Political and regulatory environment

1. Following the model of Bill C-18 in Canada, a coalition of countries will form an international agreement to standardize the sharing of digital news revenue, with compliance being linked to market access. Such a move could alter the landscape of international news dissemination, leading to increased funding for newsrooms but also raising concerns about the independence of the press from governmental influence.
2. There may be an increase of “right to report” laws designed to protect journalists from legal retaliation when covering sensitive or controversial topics. This could bring back “undercover journalism,” which fell out of favor for a long time after the 1992 Food Lion case.
3. The United States may consider stringent regulations for TikTok, treating it as a potential vector for foreign influence and misinformation. This could lead to a clampdown on how the app operates in the U.S., potentially requiring data hosting within the country or even partial bans on its use for news dissemination.
4. Blockchain technology will be used to protect the rights of journalists and ensure press freedom across borders.
5. To support the well-being of journalists, newsrooms will appoint mental health officers focused on providing resources and support for burned-out staff.
6. Collaborative global campaigns to improve news literacy and critical thinking among the public will be a priority for media outlets and educational institutions.
7. There will be a rise in unionization efforts within digital newsrooms, focusing on fair wages, job security, safety, and the ethical relationships of employers with third-party platforms.
8. Next year the pace of our ever-ratcheting polarization will reach epic proportions. You thought 2016/2020 were bad?! Combined with international turmoil, this cycle will see strange bedfellows, partnerships, enemies, and endings that would make Shakespeare blush.
9. The back-and-forth tension between “objectivity” and “truth/fairness” will inspire internal discussion within the media industry.  There will be an increase in the call/movement for “objective” journalism grounded in consumer demand, but it may need to be rebranded and called something else.

Collaborative efforts

1. We’ll see the rise of “journalism guilds,” in which freelancers band together to negotiate better rates and share resources, much like the trade guilds of old. Such collectives could provide freelancers with more stability and bargaining power, leading to better quality journalism as they’re able to spend more time on their stories. This will not be full unions, but a step in that direction.
2. We can expect to see a global investigative journalism event, where newsrooms around the world collaborate for a deep dive into a pressing issue, sharing insights and resources. (Cool history: “Long before the Panama Papers and other high-profile international projects, a global network of investigative journalists collaborated over snail mail.”)
3. Journalism schools will offer “continuous education” programs, providing ongoing training and resources for professionals to keep up with industry changes. These could be subscriptions or one-time seminars.
4. The movement to diversify newsrooms to ensure a wide range of perspectives and more comprehensive reporting will continue and grow. The goal is to have journalism reflect the communities they are reporting on. During the election cycle, this will be considered paramount.
5. Collaborative networks for fact-checking will offer services to smaller newsrooms and independent journalists.
6. We might see the development of standardized “fact-check” protocols, relying not on AI but on crowdsourced, expert-based systems embedded within news platforms. We already have the SPJ Code of Ethics; perhaps we can create a code of fact-checking.
7. Mobile apps offering journalism courses will democratize the learning process, making it accessible to aspiring journalists everywhere.
8. Smaller news organizations will offer “returnships” for journalists who left the industry and want to return, supporting diversity in age and life experience.
9. Partnerships between universities and media companies to foster innovation in journalism will result in news incubators. UC Berkeley has led the way with its Local Journalism Fellowship.
10. Local news outlets may form coalitions to share resources, distribute content, and negotiate with advertisers and platforms collectively.
11. Secure communication tools will become the norm in newsrooms, leading to a rise in platforms specifically designed for journalistic source protection. Such tools could become a unique selling point for news organizations, assuring sources of their safety and potentially leading to more scoops.

Editorial focus

1. As climate change becomes more pressing, we’ll see the formation of reporting networks focused solely on environmental issues, possibly funded by a mix of philanthropy and public contributions.
2. There will be a rise in platforms catering to niche audiences, focusing on topics like industry-specific news, hobbies, or local community issues. Welcome, The Sick Times.
3. News outlets will dedicate more resources to mental health reporting. This coverage will not only report on mental health issues but will also provide resources and support, positioning the news organizations as part of the solution.
4. Standardized trust ratings for news sources and stories to combat misinformation will develop. NewsGuard may be the “trusted” third party here or perhaps more open standards would be adopted.
5. An ethical “news seal of approval” could be created, signifying adherence to strict reporting standards and a commitment to non-partisan coverage.
6. Media organizations will invest in digitizing and curating their archives, making historical content more accessible to the public. This will not only serve an educational purpose, but will also open new revenue streams as users seek to understand the present by exploring the past.
7. News stories will come with transparency logs detailing the reporting process and any updates or corrections like the Transparency Tracker. These could be as broad as the “Coming From” project out of Jay Rosen’s Studio 20 or more narrow as applied to specific investigations and stories.
8. News articles may come with “nutrition labels” detailing the sources, viewpoint diversity, and fact-checking that went into the piece, akin to food nutrition labels.
9. A focus on restorative justice principles will influence reporting, aiming to heal communities and offer solutions rather than just report problems. (Huzzah, solutions journalism)
10. Major media outlets will prioritize covering news from historically underreported regions, dedicating resources to establish a presence and build networks in these areas.
11. As part of a trend toward trust, newsrooms will publicly declare areas of coverage where AI is explicitly excluded. In Wired’s guidelines outlining how it will use AI, the publication called out explicit areas where they will not use the technology as well.
12. Newsrooms will develop reporting teams dedicated to uncovering and explaining the impact of algorithms on everyday life. The Markup leads the way, but major newsrooms across the country will apply these tactics.
13. With commercial space travel and exploration on the rise, specialized news services focusing on space and astronomy will become more mainstream. A new business sector of reporting will develop slowly but surely.

Technology adoption (but not AI)

1. AR will be used to create immersive documentaries, allowing viewers to explore news stories in a 360-degree environment, leading to partnerships between news agencies and AR development companies.
2. Blockchain technology will be used to create a syndication network for independent journalists, allowing them to sell their stories to the highest bidder among a global network of publishers. Even if you’re skeptical this could work, a potential 2024/2025 Bitcoin bull run will lead to speculation in the space, past lessons be damned.
3. News by drone could become more common as news orgs need to capture video content from inaccessible areas at the center of international news cycles.
4. Social/news platforms will create content that disappears after a certain period, mimicking the ephemeral nature of social media stories. Slow journalism combined with ephemerality! (For those who remember, we’re talking 2024 Evening Edition.)
5. Haptic technology will allow users to receive physical feedback from news stories, like vibrations during a live sports event. Smell the news!
6. Media companies will offer NFTs for iconic news moments, allowing people to own a piece of history. This happened in 2021 and another bull market in crypto could lead to another wave.
7. We’ll see customized news content for wearable devices, offering headline updates and brief summaries directly to smartwatches or AR glasses like Apple’s Vision Pro. (I don’t entirely disagree with Adam Timworth’s assessment, though.)
8. Public digital newsstands and screens will provide news updates and allow for interaction, particularly in urban centers. These could be funded by local civic governments in an effort to revitalize a sense of place and civic cohesion.
9. News organizations will integrate their content with smart home devices, providing tailored news briefings and updates throughout the day.

Let’s talk business

1. Media companies will experiment with ambitious subscription bundles, including memberships to gyms, clubs, or wellness centers.
2. News outlets may introduce a “subscription pause” feature for users who go on vacation or want to pause for financial reasons. This feature will allow users to freeze their subscription and payments, which could improve retention rates.
3. In response to economic pressures, major news outlets might launch “news thrift” platforms offering discounted or pay-what-you-can access to archives and special reports.
4. Taking cues from Software as a Service (SaaS), some media companies will start offering Journalism as a Service, providing bespoke content and reporting services to businesses and individuals. The Stacker Model!
5. Branded content sections within news platforms will become more prevalent, letting companies can sponsor and influence non-editorial content.
6. News subscriptions will offer micro-tiers allowing users to customize their news packages based on topics, frequency, and depth.
7. In 2024, as Brian Morrissey writes, “The name of the game now is a back-to-basics focus on ARPU (average revenue per user) instead of the sugar high of growth hacks.” The dawn of the era of subscriptions is upon us.
8. The “cookiepocolypse” will ramp up. Emphasis on high-quality relationships with readers will help power new premium advertising experiences that don’t rely on cookies.
9. News services will offer group subscription plans, similar to family plans on streaming services.
10. New efforts in crowdfunding will allow the public to fund stories or investigations they are interested in. (Who would ever attempt to even try such a hare-brained scheme?)
11. Online global news forums will facilitate cross-cultural dialogue and debate on international news stories, moderated by journalists to ensure constructive and informed discussions.
12. Magazine companies will explore unique monthly subscriptions where users can swap one magazine for another each month. One month a user wants Wired and the next they choose Bon Appétit.

Content and delivery

1. The use of immersive theater techniques in reporting might emerge, with news stories presented in an interactive, performative manner. National brands will leverage “The Sphere” and local brands will use more accessible theater spaces. Long live Pop-Up Magazine.
2. A resurgence of physical news media might occur, with a niche market developing for artisanal, printed news products, such as limited-edition newspapers or magazines. As cheap and dubious content spreads online, print content, which is expensive to produce, will be seen as more trustworthy. The work required to report, publish, and distribute print media proves an effort — and therefore value — that is harder to fake. I call this “Proof of Trust,” taken from Bitcoin’s “Proof of Work.”
3. We may witness the rise of temporary, project-based teams that come together to cover major events or crises and disband afterward.
4. The popularity of “long-read Sundays” or similar initiatives might grow, with news outlets curating a selection of in-depth articles for relaxed weekend consumption.
5. News organizations will continue to move away from reliance on big tech platforms for traffic, developing their own distribution channels like SMS, email newsletters, and more.
6. Newsrooms will produce content in local languages to serve diverse populations, particularly in multicultural urban areas. This will include training for journalists on cultural competency to ensure that reporting is sensitive to and inclusive of diverse communities.
7. Audio news formats, like podcasts and news briefings for smart speakers, will continue to grow. News organizations will invest in these formats, recognizing the audience’s desire for accessible content that can be consumed on the go or as part of their daily routines.
8. News outlets will produce serialized podcasts that provide deep dives into ongoing stories or historical events.
9. News sites will integrate social features, allowing readers to interact, form communities, and discuss articles within their own site/platform.
10. There will be an increase in interactive timelines that allow users to explore the history and progression of major news stories.
11. News organizations will create content that evolves, with stories updated regularly to provide the latest developments, creating a lifecycle for every major piece of reporting that evolve along with the beat reporter. In this sense, news organizations will tell stories instead of writing articles.
12. Advanced geo-targeting will allow news apps to send hyperlocal alerts for breaking news or events based on the user’s immediate location.
13. News platforms may offer a service where users can create personal archives of news coverage, saving articles, videos, and audio content for long-term access and reference.
14. In December of 2024, Nieman Lab will produce a great prediction series for 2025. NAILED IT!