Predictions for Journalism 2017

Podcasting’s coming class war

“The independent community will be pressured into self-organizing. Though the ecosystem will end the year less open than when it started the year, there will at least be formal sites of resistance.”
        
  • That new Jim VandeHei joint, Axios, won’t be the only new media venture premised on the notion that “people who care about real news are now a niche” we’ll see in the coming year. Several companies, some new and some already in existence, will probably push deeper into structurally differentiating between intelligence, information, news, and content, and they’ll price accordingly. The outcome will likely be a worsening of knowledge inequality.

    • nick-quah

  • Digital video will continue to drive the conversation around growth, innovation, and survival as it pertains to media organizations. The medium will finally establish itself as the unambiguous principal commodity that flows between the pipes that make up the #content ecosystem that ties all our mobile devices together. Where digital video will increasingly look like water, every other format in the visual realm — particularly television — will be forced deeper into a position where the move would be to position themselves more as wine: more prestige branding, more niches, smaller audiences, higher prices. It will become increasingly ambiguous whether this strategy will yield any significant national-cultural impact, but on the bright side, a contextual line will have been drawn between commodity and high-quality good.
  • Someone’s going to try and make the argument that print magazines are the new vinyl. Shade will be thrown, but quietly, hope is kindled among some.
  • Rent prices will continue to go up in New York — not a prediction, a certainty — and that will further ensure only a certain type of young person will get media jobs. Meanwhile, in certain cities throughout the country (particularly the ones with some considerable inflow of tech money and tech workers, and probably also college towns), some enterprising young person is going to wonder out loud: “Say, wouldn’t it be a good idea to start an email newsletter covering the city?”
  • Oh, and because I cover the podcast industry for my day job: Podcasting is going to further formalize at the emerging professionalizing layer, and the bulk of advertising growth will be captured at the top. Value will not trickle down, gains will not be equally spread. The independent community will be pressured into self-organizing. Though the ecosystem will end the year less open than when it started the year, there will at least be formal sites of resistance.

Nicholas Quah writes Hot Pod.

Each year, Nieman Lab asks some of the smartest people in journalism what they think is coming in the new year. Here are their predictions for 2017.
See the full list →

Maria Bustillos   “It’s true — I saw it on Facebook”

Nushin Rashidian   A rise in high-price, high-value subscriptions

Dan Colarusso   Let’s make live video we can love

Geetika Rudra   Journalism is community

Coleen O'Lear   Back to basics

Michael Oreskes   Reversing the erosion of democracy

Joanne Lipman   The year of the drone, really

Mario García   Virtual reality on mobile leaps forward

Cindy Royal   Preparing the digital educator-scholar hybrid

Carrie Brown-Smith   We won’t do enough

Andrew Ramsammy   Rise of the rebel journalist

Jonathan Stray   A boom in responsible conservative media

AX Mina   2017 is for the attention innovators

Priya Ganapati   Mobile websites are ready for reinvention

Matt Waite   The people running the media are the problem

Valérie Bélair-Gagnon   Truthiness in private spaces

Rachel Schallom   Stop flying over the flyover states

Michael Kuntz   Trust is the new click

Corey Ford   The year of the rebelpreneur

Libby Bawcombe   Kids board the podcast train

Sue Schardt   Objectivity, fairness, balance, and love

Doris Truong   Connecting with diverse perspectives

P. Kim Bui   The year journalism teaches again

Jeremy Barr   A terrible year for Tiers B through D

Kathleen Kingsbury   Print as a premium offering

Tim Griggs   The year we stop taking sides

Sarah Marshall   Focusing on the why of the click

Matt Karolian   AI improves publishing

Trushar Barot   API or die

Keren Goldshlager   Defining a focus, and then saying no

Andy Rossback   The year of the user

Andrew Haeg   The year of listening

Annemarie Dooling   UGC as a path out of the bubble

Juliette De Maeyer and Dominique Trudel   A rebirth of populist journalism

Dannagal G. Young   The return of the gatekeepers

Millie Tran   International expansion without colonial overtones

Dan Gillmor   Fix the demand side of news too

Julia Beizer   Building a coherent core identity

Tressie McMillan Cottom   A path through the media’s coming legitimacy crisis

Eric Nuzum   Podcasting stratifies into hard layers

Kawandeep Virdee   Moving deeper than the machine of clicks

Scott Dodd   Nonprofits team up for impact

Liz Danzico   The triumph of the small

Sam Ford   The year we talk about our awful metrics

Ståle Grut   The battle for high-quality VR

Robert Hernandez   History will exclude you, again

Tim Herrera   The safe space of service journalism

Ernst-Jan Pfauth   Earn trust by working for (and with) readers

Juan Luis Sánchez   Your predictions are our present

Sara M. Watson   There is no neutral interface

Javaun Moradi   What can we own?

Ole Reißmann   Un-faking the news

Nathalie Malinarich   Making it easy

Dhiya Kuriakose   The year of digital detoxing

Helen Havlak   Chasing mobile search results

Ryan McCarthy   Platforms grow up or grow more toxic

Alberto Cairo   Communicating uncertainty to our readers

S.P. Sullivan   Baking transparency into our routines

Emi Kolawole   From empathy to community

Liz McMillen   The year of deep insights

Rasmus Kleis Nielsen   News after advertising may look like news before advertising

Lee Glendinning   A call for great editing

Laura Walker   Authentic voices, not fake news

Ray Soto   VR moves from experiments to immersion

Cory Haik   Navigating power in Trump’s America

Emily Goligoski   Incorporating audience feedback at scale

Mike Ragsdale   A smarter information diet

Sydette Harry   Facing journalism’s history

Jon Slade   Trusted news, at a premium

David Skok   What lies beyond paywalls

M. Scott Havens   Quality advertising to pair with quality content

David Chavern   Fake news gets solved

Zizi Papacharissi   Distracted journalism looks in the mirror

Gabriel Snyder   The aberration of 20th-century journalism

Elizabeth Jensen   Trust depends on the details

Guy Raz   Inspiration and hope will matter more than ever

Carla Zanoni   Prioritizing emotional health

Andrea Silenzi   Podcasts dive into breaking news analysis

Mathew Ingram   The Faustian Facebook dance continues

Claire Wardle   Verification takes center stage

Felix Salmon   Headlines matter

Ashley C. Woods   Local journalism will fight a new fight

Vivian Schiller   Tested like never before

Amy Webb   Journalism as a service

Mandy Velez   The audience is the source and the story

Ariane Bernard   Better data about your users

Jonathan Hunt   Measurement companies get with the times

Errin Haines   Chaos or community?

Mary Walter-Brown   Getting comfortable asking for money

Mark Armstrong   Time to pay up

Erin Pettigrew   A year of reflection in tech

Alexis Lloyd   Public trust for private realities

Tanya Cordrey   The resurgence of reach

Katie Zhu   The year of minority media

Umbreen Bhatti   A sense of journalists’ humanity

Erin Millar   The bottom falls out of Canadian media

Tracie Powell   Building reader relationships

Christopher Meighan   Unlocking a deeper mobile experience

Renée Kaplan   Pure reach has reached its limit

Bill Adair   The year of the fact-checking bot

Peter Sterne   A dangerous anti-press mix

Lam Thuy Vo   The primary source in the age of mechanical multiplication

Sarah Wolozin   Virtual reality on the open web

Moreno Cruz Osório   The year of transparency in Brazilian journalism

David Weigel   A test for online speech

Reyhan Harmanci   Bear witness — but then what?

Taylor Lorenz   “Selfie journalism” becomes a thing

Olivia Ma   The year collaboration beats competition

Burt Herman   Local news gets interesting

Margarita Noriega   From pinning tweets to tweeting pins

Melody Kramer   Radically rethinking design

Nicholas Quah   Podcasting’s coming class war

Aja Bogdanoff   Comments start pulling their weight

Swati Sharma   Failing diversity is failing journalism

Andrew Losowsky   Building our own communities

Mary Meehan   Feeling blue in a red state

Megan H. Chan   Cultural reporting goes mainstream

Asma Khalid   The year of the newsy podcast

Alice Antheaume   A new test for French media

Francesco Marconi   The year of augmented writing

Anita Zielina   The sales funnel reaches (and changes) the newsroom

Rubina Madan Fillion   Snapchat grows up

Laura E. Davis   Show your work

Amy O'Leary   Not just covering communities, reaching them

Pablo Boczkowski   Fake news and the future of journalism

Steve Henn   The next revolution is voice

Richard Tofel   The country doesn’t trust us — but they do believe us

Amie Ferris-Rotman   Вслед за Россией

Jim Friedlich   A banner year for venture philanthropy

Samantha Barry   Messaging apps go mainstream

Almar Latour   Thanks, #fakenews

Hillary Frey   Forests need to burn to regrow

Rachel Sklar   Women are going to get loud

Molly de Aguiar   Philanthropists galvanize around news

Adam Thomas   The coming collaboration across Europe

Caitlin Thompson   High touch, high value

Mira Lowe   News literacy, bias, and “Hamilton”

Ken Schwencke   Disaggregation and collection

Bill Keller   A healthy skepticism about data

Rebekah Monson   Journalism is community-as-a-service

Updating through December 19
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