Until now, daily newspapers have served as a primary source of public service journalism both in local communities and at the state level. And until now, public broadcasters and digital startups have often played an additive role in their information ecosystems, doing follow-on, human interest, and hyperlocal coverage.
This year, we’ll start to see these complementary news sources head towards center stage. But are the pieces in place for these newsrooms to play a starring role?
One major problem facing the entire local news sector is the lack of growth capital available to help organizations expand. Building a newsroom, growing an audience, and strengthening a news brand requires not just operational discipline but ongoing infusions of capital — to hire talent, create new infrastructure, and expand revenue-generating capacity. Thus far, it’s been foundations and major donors fueling much of the startup phase of nonprofit digital newsrooms — or in the case of LION members, individual entrepreneurs bootstrapping their operations with their own savings and sweat equity. Local public broadcasters in wealthy markets have been able to turn to major donors to raise capital, but not all stations are so lucky. To borrow terminology from the venture capital world, Series A and B funding sources are few and far between for many newsrooms.
So where will the growth capital come from to finance the expansion of local news-gathering capacity — to give once-secondary newsrooms a fighting chance of filling the holes left by local newspapers? And what might be the unintended consequences of growth in non-commercial news?
Here are five possible (not mutually exclusive) scenarios, ranked more or less by likelihood.
Consolidation and a brushfire effect: We see public broadcasters increasingly take the lead in local newsgathering, and helping their digital cousins along. We’ve already seen a wave of acquisitions of digital newsrooms by public broadcasters, and in healthy markets, this is likely to continue. In fact, in the short term, we predict that at least one public broadcaster will be in a position to purchase the assets of a failing local paper. On the other hand, if there isn’t adequate philanthropic capital to support the growth of noncommercial newsrooms and fund their acquisitions, we might see more small digital news startups fail. Indeed, while failure rates in local digital news media have generally been low, 2020 might be the year that changes. The market will be crowded, especially if more newspapers transition to 501(c)(3) status.
A big, coordinated play by philanthropic leaders to boost production of noncommercial news: In this scenario, outfits like the American Journalism Project become critical vectors for deploying philanthropic capital to newsrooms in ways that are designed for accountability and impact. If strong impact models can be found, we predict more philanthropic investors will come off the sidelines to make more growth happen. (Look to organizations like the Knight Foundation to catalyze new philanthropic investment in that direction.) Yet even with a game-changing funding renaissance in local news (which would require the significant participation of community foundations), it probably won’t be fast enough or big enough to refill the bucket as local newspaper talent and jobs continue to drain away. There may not be enough philanthropic capital, even on the sidelines, to support the scope and depth of local news-gathering that our democracy requires.
With generational churn comes a new relationship to the news: Remember how editors would bemoan “kids these days” who never had to pay for news? We see an important cross-current — younger news audiences who view journalism as something critical to civic life and who show signs of being willing to support it financially for that reason. As long as powerful voices in Washington and beyond threaten a free press, we’ll see more recognition by younger Americans that news isn’t just a consumer product, but a civic good.
Weighing donor influence and local trust in news: Growth in the non-commercial news ecosystem will also bring some ethical and trust issues to the fore. So far, local news outlets have been spared some of the public’s increasing distrust of the national news media. If the volume of philanthropic giving to non-commercial news outstrips the implementation of firewall policies protecting newsrooms from the influence of donors, we may see a deterioration of trust in local news. This is just as much a risk for public media newsrooms as small digital ones. The original newsroom firewalls were constructed to protect editorial decision-making from the influence of commercial advertisers. But editorial policy can be just as influenced by major donors or by the slow drip of catering to a core membership. And if a savvy news entrepreneur or two learns to apply the lessons of political or advocacy fundraising to local journalism (as some are starting to do), the risk is that local journalism becomes an influence racket — albeit a vaguely respectable one.
A New(s) Deal for the 21st century: If all forms of philanthropic support for local news are truly not enough, we predict that by the end of 2030, we’ll be seeing large-scale policy changes to publicly support more sources of local news. It may not seem like we’re that close on this one, but trust us, it could happen. Once the U.S. is under Swedish occupation. Or run by the Climate Strike generation of kids now in middle school and high school.
Elizabeth Hansen is program lead for news sustainability at Harvard’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy. Jesse Holcomb is an assistant professor of journalism and communication at Calvin University.
Until now, daily newspapers have served as a primary source of public service journalism both in local communities and at the state level. And until now, public broadcasters and digital startups have often played an additive role in their information ecosystems, doing follow-on, human interest, and hyperlocal coverage.
This year, we’ll start to see these complementary news sources head towards center stage. But are the pieces in place for these newsrooms to play a starring role?
One major problem facing the entire local news sector is the lack of growth capital available to help organizations expand. Building a newsroom, growing an audience, and strengthening a news brand requires not just operational discipline but ongoing infusions of capital — to hire talent, create new infrastructure, and expand revenue-generating capacity. Thus far, it’s been foundations and major donors fueling much of the startup phase of nonprofit digital newsrooms — or in the case of LION members, individual entrepreneurs bootstrapping their operations with their own savings and sweat equity. Local public broadcasters in wealthy markets have been able to turn to major donors to raise capital, but not all stations are so lucky. To borrow terminology from the venture capital world, Series A and B funding sources are few and far between for many newsrooms.
So where will the growth capital come from to finance the expansion of local news-gathering capacity — to give once-secondary newsrooms a fighting chance of filling the holes left by local newspapers? And what might be the unintended consequences of growth in non-commercial news?
Here are five possible (not mutually exclusive) scenarios, ranked more or less by likelihood.
Consolidation and a brushfire effect: We see public broadcasters increasingly take the lead in local newsgathering, and helping their digital cousins along. We’ve already seen a wave of acquisitions of digital newsrooms by public broadcasters, and in healthy markets, this is likely to continue. In fact, in the short term, we predict that at least one public broadcaster will be in a position to purchase the assets of a failing local paper. On the other hand, if there isn’t adequate philanthropic capital to support the growth of noncommercial newsrooms and fund their acquisitions, we might see more small digital news startups fail. Indeed, while failure rates in local digital news media have generally been low, 2020 might be the year that changes. The market will be crowded, especially if more newspapers transition to 501(c)(3) status.
A big, coordinated play by philanthropic leaders to boost production of noncommercial news: In this scenario, outfits like the American Journalism Project become critical vectors for deploying philanthropic capital to newsrooms in ways that are designed for accountability and impact. If strong impact models can be found, we predict more philanthropic investors will come off the sidelines to make more growth happen. (Look to organizations like the Knight Foundation to catalyze new philanthropic investment in that direction.) Yet even with a game-changing funding renaissance in local news (which would require the significant participation of community foundations), it probably won’t be fast enough or big enough to refill the bucket as local newspaper talent and jobs continue to drain away. There may not be enough philanthropic capital, even on the sidelines, to support the scope and depth of local news-gathering that our democracy requires.
With generational churn comes a new relationship to the news: Remember how editors would bemoan “kids these days” who never had to pay for news? We see an important cross-current — younger news audiences who view journalism as something critical to civic life and who show signs of being willing to support it financially for that reason. As long as powerful voices in Washington and beyond threaten a free press, we’ll see more recognition by younger Americans that news isn’t just a consumer product, but a civic good.
Weighing donor influence and local trust in news: Growth in the non-commercial news ecosystem will also bring some ethical and trust issues to the fore. So far, local news outlets have been spared some of the public’s increasing distrust of the national news media. If the volume of philanthropic giving to non-commercial news outstrips the implementation of firewall policies protecting newsrooms from the influence of donors, we may see a deterioration of trust in local news. This is just as much a risk for public media newsrooms as small digital ones. The original newsroom firewalls were constructed to protect editorial decision-making from the influence of commercial advertisers. But editorial policy can be just as influenced by major donors or by the slow drip of catering to a core membership. And if a savvy news entrepreneur or two learns to apply the lessons of political or advocacy fundraising to local journalism (as some are starting to do), the risk is that local journalism becomes an influence racket — albeit a vaguely respectable one.
A New(s) Deal for the 21st century: If all forms of philanthropic support for local news are truly not enough, we predict that by the end of 2030, we’ll be seeing large-scale policy changes to publicly support more sources of local news. It may not seem like we’re that close on this one, but trust us, it could happen. Once the U.S. is under Swedish occupation. Or run by the Climate Strike generation of kids now in middle school and high school.
Elizabeth Hansen is program lead for news sustainability at Harvard’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy. Jesse Holcomb is an assistant professor of journalism and communication at Calvin University.
Cristina Kim Public media stops trying to serve “everybody”
Jonas Kaiser Russian bots are just today’s slacktivists
Anthony Nadler Clash of Clans: Election Edition
Monica Drake A renewed focus on misinformation
Mike Caulfield Native verification tools for the blue checkmark crowd
Monique Judge The year to organize, unionize, and fight
Beena Raghavendran The year of the local engagement reporter
Kourtney Bitterly Transparency isn’t just a desire, it’s an expectation
Tamar Charney From broadcast to bespoke
Barbara Gray Join local libraries on the frontlines of civic engagement
Ståle Grut OSINT journalism goes mainstream
Meredith Artley Stronger solidarity among news organizations
Sue Robinson Campaign coverage as test bed for engagement experiments
Michael W. Wagner Increasingly fractured, but little bit deliberative
Ben Werdmuller Use the tools of journalism to save it
Zizi Papacharissi A president leads, the press follows, reality fades
M. Scott Havens First-party data becomes media’s most important currency
Bill Adair A Nobel Prize, a Brad Pitt film, and a Taylor Swift song
J. Siguru Wahutu Western journalists, learn from your African peers
Fiona Spruill The climate crisis gets the coverage it deserves
Dan Shanoff Sports media enters the Bronny era
Alfred Hermida and Mary Lynn Young The promise of nonprofit journalism
Carrie Brown-Smith Engaged journalism: It’s finally happening
Errin Haines Race and gender aren’t a 2020 story — they’re the story
Jeremy Olshan All journalism should be service journalism
Jakob Moll A slow-moving tech backlash among young people
Dannagal G. Young Let’s disrupt the logic that’s driving Americans apart
Bill Grueskin Our ethics codes get an overhaul
Joe Amditis Collaborative journalism takes its rightful place at the table
Cory Haik We’re already consuming the future of news — now we have to produce it
Joshua P. Darr All that campaign cash will make the media’s problems worse
Knight Foundation Five generations of journalists, learning from each other
Joni Deutsch Podcasting unsilences the silent
Jasmine McNealy A call for context
Whitney Phillips A time to question core beliefs
Rasmus Kleis Nielsen The business we want, not the business we had
Francesco Zaffarano TikTok without generational prejudice
Lauren Duca The rise of the journalistic influencer
Stefanie Murray Charitable giving goes collaborative
Felix Salmon Spotify launches a news channel
Gordon Crovitz Fighting misinformation requires journalism, not secret algorithms
Hossein Derakhshan AI can’t conjure up an Errol Morris
Joanne McNeil A return to blogs (finally? sort of?)
Linda Solomon Wood Everyone in your organization, moving toward a common goal
Brenda P. Salinas Treating MP3 files like text
An Xiao Mina The Forum we wanted, the forum we got
Don Day Respect the non-paying audience
Simon Galperin Journalism becomes more democratic
Richard Tofel A constraint of the reader-revenue model emerges
Annie Rudd The expanded ambiguity of the news photograph
Elizabeth Hansen and Jesse Holcomb Local news initiatives run into a capital shortage
Jeremy Gilbert and Jarrod Dicker A call for collaboration between storytelling and tech
Heidi Tworek The year of positive pushback
Imaeyen Ibanga Let’s take it slow
Jake Shapiro Podcasting gets listener relationship management
Raney Aronson-Rath News deserts will proliferate — but so will new solutions
Alexandra Borchardt Get out of the office and talk to people
A.J. Bauer A fork in the road for conservative media
Julia B. Chan We 👏 take 👏 breaks 👏
Candis Callison Taking a cue from Indigenous journalists on climate change
Nushin Rashidian Are platforms a bridge or a lifeline?
Logan Jaffe You don’t need fancy tools to listen
Matthew Pressman News consumers divide into haves and have-nots
Rachel Glickhouse Journalists get left behind in the industry’s decline
Matt DeRienzo Local broadcasters begin to fill the gaps left by newspapers
Pablo Boczkowski The day after November 4
Irving Washington Leadership isn’t something you learn on the job
Kathleen Searles Pay more attention to attention
Steve Henn The dawning audio web
Carl Bialik Journalists will try running the whole shop
Elizabeth Dunbar Frank talk, and then action
Mary Walter-Brown and Tristan Loper Power to the people (on your audience team)
Talia Stroud The work of reconnecting starts November 4
Meg Marco Everything happens somewhere
Tonya Mosley The neutrality vs. objectivity game ends
Nico Gendron Make better products if you want to reach Gen Z
Craig Newmark Formalizing newsrooms’ battle against disinformation
Emily Withrow The year we kill the news article
Doris Truong The year of radical salary transparency
Eric Nuzum Podcasting finally creates another mega-hit show
Christa Scharfenberg It’s time to make journalism a field that supports and respects women
Masuma Ahuja Slower, quieter, more measured and thoughtful
Heather Bryant Some kinds of journalism aren’t worth saving
Juleyka Lantigua A changing industry amps up podcasters’ ambitions
Logan Molyneux and Shannon McGregor Think twice before turning to Twitter
Sonali Prasad Climate change storytelling gets multidimensional
Margarita Noriega The platforms try to figure out what to do with single-subject newsrooms
Helen Havlak Platforms shine a light on original reporting
Colleen Shalby Journalists become media literacy teachers
Peter Bale Lies get further normalized
Brian Moritz The end of “stick to sports”
Mira Lowe The year of student-powered journalism
Mario García Think small (screen)
Sarah Stonbely More people start caring about news inequality
Seth C. Lewis 20 questions for 2020
Greg Emerson News apps fall further behind
Sarah Alvarez I’m ready for post-news
Victor Pickard We reclaim a public good
John Keefe Journalism gets hacked
Geneva Overholser Death to bothsidesism
Jeff Kofman Speed through technology
Alana Levinson Brand-backed media gets another look
Rick Berke Incoming fire from both left and right
Laura E. Davis Know the context your journalism is operating within
Nathalie Malinarich Betting on loyalty
Alice Antheaume Trade “politics” for “power”
Sara K. Baranowski A big year for little newspapers
S. Mitra Kalita The race to 2021
Lucas Graves A smarter conversation about how (and why) fact-checking matters
Tanya Cordrey Saying no to more good ideas
Rachel Davis Mersey The business of local TV news will enter its downward slide
Josh Schwartz Publishers move beyond the metered paywall
Jim Brady We’ll complain about other people living in bubbles while ignoring our own
Kristen Muller The year we operationalize community engagement
Ernie Smith The death of the industry fad
Catalina Albeanu Rebuilding journalism, together
Sarah Schmalbach Journalist, quantify thyself
Jennifer Brandel A love letter from the year 2073
Tom Glaisyer Journalism can emerge newly vibrant and powerful
Rachel Schallom The value of push alerts goes beyond open rates
Moreno Cruz Osório In Brazil, collaboration in a time of state attacks
Nicholas Jackson What’s left of local gets comfortable with reader support
Mariana Moura Santos The future of journalism is collaborative
Kevin D. Grant The free press stands against authoritarians’ attacks on truth
Cindy Royal Prepare media students for skills, not job titles
Kerri Hoffman Opening closed systems
Sarah Marshall The year to learn about news moments
Madelyn Sanfilippo and Yafit Lev-Aretz News coverage gets geo-fragmented
John Garrett It’s the best time in a century to start a local news organization