There is no such thing as “predicting” the future. I know that seems like a strange statement coming from a quantitative futurist. A prediction would assume that most of the variables that make up everyday life are fixed. You might be able to predict the outcome of an election or a baseball game, but that kind of statistical analysis doesn’t work for foresight, and it certainly doesn’t apply to thinking about the future of news.
The best we can do is to listen to weak signals about emerging technologies in the present, to recognize patterns early, and to build out possible, plausible, and probable scenarios that describe implications. News organizations must focus on incremental actions, starting right now. But they cannot effectively plan for the future without thinking broadly. If you don’t simultaneously pay attention to signals from news and also those coming from adjacent areas, you’re effectively looking at the world through a pinhole camera.
In October, I open-sourced my forecasting methodology and all of my research. I also published a new report, which details 75 emerging tech trends for news. Going into 2018, these are some key insights for every news organization, regardless of size or geographic location:
To understand the future of news, you must pay attention to the future of many industries and research areas in the coming year. When journalists think about the future, they should broaden the usual scope to consider developments from myriad other fields also participating in the knowledge economy. Technology begets technology. We are witnessing an explosion in slow motion.
Amy Webb is founder of the Future Today Institute.
Jennifer Brandel and Mónica Guzmán The editorial meeting of the future
Craig Newmark Working together toward sustainable solutions
Rick Berke Value is the watchword
José Zamora Revenue-first journalism
Elizabeth Jensen Show your work
Edward Roussel Eyes, ears, and brains
Borja Echevarría TV goes digital, digital goes TV
Nicholas Quah Stop talking trash about young people
Kinsey Wilson Facebook and Google: Help out or pay up
Julia Beizer A longer view on the pivot
Joyce Barnathan It will be harder to bury the news
Umbreen Bhatti The trust problem isn’t new
P. Kim Bui The reckoning is only beginning
Juliette De Maeyer A responsible press criticism
Aron Pilhofer We can’t leave the business to the business side any more
Tim Carmody Watch out for Spotify
Kathleen McElroy Building a news video experience native to mobile
Tamar Charney We get serious about algorithms
Zizi Papacharissi Women come back
Charo Henríquez Training is an investment, not an expense
Niketa Patel Live journalism comes of age
Millie Tran and Stine Bauer Dahlberg (Hint: It’s about your brand)
Corey Johnson The pro-fact resistance
Daniel Trielli The rich get richer, the poor scramble
Sally Lehrman Trust comes first
Cory Haik Suffering from realness, pivoting to impact
Nushin Rashidian Publishers seek ad dollar alternatives
Mike Caulfield Refactoring media literacy for the networked age
Kyle Ellis Let’s build our way out of this
Jassim Ahmad Thriving on change
Carlos Martínez de la Serna The new journalism commons
Caitlin Thompson Podcasting models mature and diversify
Matt DeRienzo A recession, then a collapse
Kawandeep Virdee Zines had it right all along
Alice Antheaume Are you fluent in AI?
Mario García Storytelling finally adapts to mobile
Manoush Zomorodi Self-help as a publishing strategy
Yvonne Leow The rise of video messaging
Cristina Wilson The year of the Instagram Story
Juleyka Lantigua Women of color will reclaim and monetize our time
Steve Grove The midterms are an opportunity
Nikki Usher The year of The Washington Post
Trushar Barot The Jio-fication of India
Adam Thomas Sharing is caring: The year of the mentor
Federica Cherubini The rise of bridge roles in news organizations
Rasmus Kleis Nielsen The Snapchat scenario and the risk of more closed platforms
Monika Bauerlein The firehose of falsehood
Debra Adams Simmons And a woman shall lead them
Laura E. Davis Writing answers before you know the question
Evie Nagy Pivot to mobile video frustration
Corey Ford The empire strikes back
Michelle Ferrier The year of the great reckoning
Betsy O'Donovan and Melody Kramer Skepticism and narcissism
Sam Sanders Shine the light on ourselves
Ruth Palmer Risks will grow for news subjects — especially minorities
Jarrod Dicker Honesty in advertising
Michelle Garcia Navigating journalistic transparency
Basile Simon We need better career paths for news nerds
Bill Keller A growing turn to philanthropy
Rodney Benson Better, less read, and less trusted
Ray Soto VR reaches the next level
Jessica Parker Gilbert Design connects storytelling and strategy
Marcela Donini and Thiago Herdy Collaboration is the way forward for Brazilian journalism
Rachel Davis Mersey AI, with real smarts
Cindy Royal Your journalism curriculum is obsolete
Mariana Moura Santos Think local, act global
Taylor Lorenz Social and media will split
Andrew Haeg The year journalists become relationship builders
Jim Brady With the people, not just of the people
Raney Aronson-Rath Transparency is the antidote to fake news
Feli Sánchez The year for guerrilla user research
Frédéric Filloux External forces
Matt Thompson Here come the attention managers
Tanzina Vega It’s time for media companies to #PassTheMic
Will Sommer The year local media gets conservative
Joanne McNeil Gatekeeping the gatekeepers
Marie Gilot No assholes allowed
Lucas Graves From algorithms to institutions
S. Mitra Kalita The arc of news and audience
David Skok Finding an information-life balance
Mariano Blejman News games rule
Ståle Grut Reclaiming audience interaction from social networks
Alastair Coote The year of self-improvement
Mandy Velez texting is lit rn, fam
Luke O'Neil The end is already here
Carrie Brown-Smith Transparency finally takes off
Pete Brown Push alerts, personalized
Eric Ulken The year local publishers get smart(er) about change
Imaeyen Ibanga Longform video leads the way
Heather Bryant Building the ecosystems for collaboration
Pablo Boczkowski The rise of skeptical reading
AX Mina Memes and visuals come to the fore
Vivian Schiller Pivot to tomorrow
Jesse Holcomb Information disorder, coming to a congressional district near you
C.W. Anderson The social media apocalypse
Brian Lam Sketchy ethics around product reviews
Sam Ford The year of investing in processes
Molly de Aguiar Good journalism won’t be enough
Matt Boggie The intellectual equivalent of the Dead Sea
Rubina Madan Fillion Unlocking the potential of AI
Emily Goligoski Looking beyond news for inspiration
Gordon Crovitz Serving readers over advertisers
Alan Soon The rise of start of psychographic, micro-targeted media
Felix Salmon Covering bitcoin while owning bitcoin
Alfred Hermida Going beyond mobile-first
Andrew Losowsky The year of resilience
Kim Fox Audience teams diversify their approach
Pia Frey Address users as individuals
Jennifer Coogan The future is female
Richard Tofel The platforms’ power demands more reporters’ attention
Justin Kosslyn The year journalists become digital security experts
Susie Banikarim R.I.P. Pivot to Video (2017–2017)
Jim Moroney Newspapers have to be good enough for readers to pay for
Emma Carew Grovum Newsroom culture becomes a priority
Amy King Let’s amplify visual voice
Sara M. Watson Feeds will open up to new user-determined filters
Hossein Derakhshan Television has won
Errin Haines At the ballot, it’s time to count black women
Francesco Marconi The year of machine-to-machine journalism
Mi-Ai Parrish Blockchain and trust
Lanre Akinola Making noise is not a strategy
Amy Webb Listen to weak signals
Sarah Marshall Loyalty as the key performance indicator
Sydette Harry Listen to your corner and watch for the hook
Vanessa K. DeLuca Women’s voices take center stage
Dan Shanoff You down with OTT? (Yeah, DTC)
Jacqui Cheng Retailers move into content
Julia B. Chan Looking for loyalty in all the right places
Lam Thuy Vo Breaking free from the tyranny of the loudest
Michael Kuntz The only pivot that might work
Tracie Powell The muting of underserved voices
Valérie Bélair-Gagnon Seeking trust in fragmented spaces
Eric Nuzum Beyond the narrative arc
Tanya Cordrey Finally, the seeds of radical reinvention
Renée Kaplan The year of quiet adjustments (shhh)
Joanne Lipman Journalists inventing revenue streams
Mira Lowe The year of the local watchdog
Mary Walter-Brown Show a little vulnerability
Caitria O'Neill The new court of public opinion
Dheerja Kaur Fun with subscription products
Monique Judge Letting black women tell their own stories
Rachel Schallom Better design helps differentiate opinion and news
Amie Ferris-Rotman More female reporters abroad (please)
Hannah Cassius The year of the echo-chamber escapists
Nicholas Diakopoulos Fortifying social media from automated inauthenticity
Christopher Meighan Passive partnership is in the rearview
Raju Narisetti Mirror, mirror on the wall
Mary Meehan Real lives are at stake in rural areas
Damon Krukowski Reviving the alt-weekly soul
Alexios Mantzarlis Moving fake news research out of the lab
Jared Newman Venture funding and digital news don’t mix
Doris Truong Computer vision vs. the Internet vigilantes
Rodney Gibbs Tech workers turn to journalism
Ernst-Jan Pfauth Publishing less to give readers more
Matt Carlson Attacks on the press will get worse
Jennifer Choi Standing up for us and for each other
Jamie Mottram From pageviews to t-shirts
Claire Wardle Disinformation gets worse
Helen Havlak Keywords, not publishers, power the world’s biggest feeds
Miguel Castro The arrival of the impact producer