There is no such thing as “predicting” the future. I know that seems like a strange statement coming from a quantitative futurist. A prediction would assume that most of the variables that make up everyday life are fixed. You might be able to predict the outcome of an election or a baseball game, but that kind of statistical analysis doesn’t work for foresight, and it certainly doesn’t apply to thinking about the future of news.
The best we can do is to listen to weak signals about emerging technologies in the present, to recognize patterns early, and to build out possible, plausible, and probable scenarios that describe implications. News organizations must focus on incremental actions, starting right now. But they cannot effectively plan for the future without thinking broadly. If you don’t simultaneously pay attention to signals from news and also those coming from adjacent areas, you’re effectively looking at the world through a pinhole camera.
In October, I open-sourced my forecasting methodology and all of my research. I also published a new report, which details 75 emerging tech trends for news. Going into 2018, these are some key insights for every news organization, regardless of size or geographic location:
To understand the future of news, you must pay attention to the future of many industries and research areas in the coming year. When journalists think about the future, they should broaden the usual scope to consider developments from myriad other fields also participating in the knowledge economy. Technology begets technology. We are witnessing an explosion in slow motion.
Amy Webb is founder of the Future Today Institute.
Rasmus Kleis Nielsen The Snapchat scenario and the risk of more closed platforms
Kinsey Wilson Facebook and Google: Help out or pay up
Monika Bauerlein The firehose of falsehood
Lam Thuy Vo Breaking free from the tyranny of the loudest
Kawandeep Virdee Zines had it right all along
Marcela Donini and Thiago Herdy Collaboration is the way forward for Brazilian journalism
Debra Adams Simmons And a woman shall lead them
Michelle Ferrier The year of the great reckoning
Andrew Losowsky The year of resilience
Ray Soto VR reaches the next level
Kristen Muller The year of the voter
Mike Caulfield Refactoring media literacy for the networked age
Michael Kuntz The only pivot that might work
Jacqui Cheng Retailers move into content
Manoush Zomorodi Self-help as a publishing strategy
Cory Haik Suffering from realness, pivoting to impact
Jennifer Choi Standing up for us and for each other
Alfred Hermida Going beyond mobile-first
Michelle Garcia Navigating journalistic transparency
Tim Carmody Watch out for Spotify
Vanessa K. DeLuca Women’s voices take center stage
Rodney Benson Better, less read, and less trusted
Taylor Lorenz Social and media will split
Claire Wardle Disinformation gets worse
Marie Gilot No assholes allowed
Jim Moroney Newspapers have to be good enough for readers to pay for
Rachel Schallom Better design helps differentiate opinion and news
Matt Carlson Attacks on the press will get worse
Joyce Barnathan It will be harder to bury the news
Lanre Akinola Making noise is not a strategy
Julia B. Chan Looking for loyalty in all the right places
Susie Banikarim R.I.P. Pivot to Video (2017–2017)
Charo Henríquez Training is an investment, not an expense
Jessica Parker Gilbert Design connects storytelling and strategy
Imaeyen Ibanga Longform video leads the way
Daniel Trielli The rich get richer, the poor scramble
Kim Fox Audience teams diversify their approach
Pablo Boczkowski The rise of skeptical reading
Tamar Charney We get serious about algorithms
C.W. Anderson The social media apocalypse
Sydette Harry Listen to your corner and watch for the hook
Nikki Usher The year of The Washington Post
An Xiao Mina Memes and visuals come to the fore
Cindy Royal Your journalism curriculum is obsolete
Will Sommer The year local media gets conservative
Dannagal G. Young Stop covering politics as a game
Jamie Mottram From pageviews to t-shirts
Luke O'Neil The end is already here
Yvonne Leow The rise of video messaging
Tanya Cordrey Finally, the seeds of radical reinvention
Renée Kaplan The year of quiet adjustments (shhh)
Borja Echevarría TV goes digital, digital goes TV
Ernst-Jan Pfauth Publishing less to give readers more
Rick Berke Value is the watchword
Ruth Palmer Risks will grow for news subjects — especially minorities
S. Mitra Kalita The arc of news and audience
Feli Sánchez The year for guerrilla user research
Umbreen Bhatti The trust problem isn’t new
Helen Havlak Keywords, not publishers, power the world’s biggest feeds
Emma Carew Grovum Newsroom culture becomes a priority
Christopher Meighan Passive partnership is in the rearview
Julia Beizer A longer view on the pivot
Sara M. Watson Feeds will open up to new user-determined filters
Pia Frey Address users as individuals
Federica Cherubini The rise of bridge roles in news organizations
Jared Newman Venture funding and digital news don’t mix
Amy King Let’s amplify visual voice
Tanzina Vega It’s time for media companies to #PassTheMic
Francesco Marconi The year of machine-to-machine journalism
Hannah Cassius The year of the echo-chamber escapists
Basile Simon We need better career paths for news nerds
Alan Soon The rise of start of psychographic, micro-targeted media
Corey Johnson The pro-fact resistance
Aron Pilhofer We can’t leave the business to the business side any more
Mi-Ai Parrish Blockchain and trust
Mira Lowe The year of the local watchdog
L. Gordon Crovitz Serving readers over advertisers
Andrew Haeg The year journalists become relationship builders
Heather Bryant Building the ecosystems for collaboration
Nicholas Diakopoulos Fortifying social media from automated inauthenticity
Rachel Davis Mersey AI, with real smarts
Raju Narisetti Mirror, mirror on the wall
Emily Goligoski Looking beyond news for inspiration
Joanne McNeil Gatekeeping the gatekeepers
Sam Sanders Shine the light on ourselves
Frédéric Filloux External forces
Nicholas Quah Stop talking trash about young people
Kathleen McElroy Building a news video experience native to mobile
Evie Nagy Pivot to mobile video frustration
Rodney Gibbs Tech workers turn to journalism
Matt Thompson Here come the attention managers
Jim Brady With the people, not just of the people
Ståle Grut Reclaiming audience interaction from social networks
Mary Meehan Real lives are at stake in rural areas
Caitria O'Neill The new court of public opinion
Eric Ulken The year local publishers get smart(er) about change
Monique Judge Letting black women tell their own stories
Joanne Lipman Journalists inventing revenue streams
Felix Salmon Covering bitcoin while owning bitcoin
Alice Antheaume Are you fluent in AI?
Hossein Derakhshan Television has won
Errin Haines At the ballot, it’s time to count black women
Bill Keller A growing turn to philanthropy
José Zamora Revenue-first journalism
Jennifer Brandel and Mónica Guzmán The editorial meeting of the future
Steve Grove The midterms are an opportunity
Dan Shanoff You down with OTT? (Yeah, DTC)
Laura E. Davis Writing answers before you know the question
Mario García Storytelling finally adapts to mobile
Sarah Marshall Loyalty as the key performance indicator
Jennifer Coogan The future is female
Mariana Moura Santos Think local, act global
Tracie Powell The muting of underserved voices
Nushin Rashidian Publishers seek ad dollar alternatives
Mary Walter-Brown Show a little vulnerability
Valérie Bélair-Gagnon Seeking trust in fragmented spaces
Andrew Ramsammy The year ownership mattered
Pete Brown Push alerts, personalized
Eric Nuzum Beyond the narrative arc
Niketa Patel Live journalism comes of age
Alexios Mantzarlis Moving fake news research out of the lab
Jesse Holcomb Information disorder, coming to a congressional district near you
Corey Ford The empire strikes back
Mandy Velez texting is lit rn, fam
Amy Webb Listen to weak signals
Jarrod Dicker Honesty in advertising
Brian Lam Sketchy ethics around product reviews
Zizi Papacharissi Women come back
Caitlin Thompson Podcasting models mature and diversify
Mariano Blejman News games rule
David Skok Finding an information-life balance
Craig Newmark Working together toward sustainable solutions
Alastair Coote The year of self-improvement
Vivian Schiller Pivot to tomorrow
Sally Lehrman Trust comes first
Elizabeth Jensen Show your work
Edward Roussel Eyes, ears, and brains
Juleyka Lantigua-Williams Women of color will reclaim and monetize our time
Amie Ferris-Rotman More female reporters abroad (please)
Carlos Martínez de la Serna The new journalism commons
Betsy O'Donovan and Melody Kramer Skepticism and narcissism
Miguel Castro The arrival of the impact producer
Matt DeRienzo A recession, then a collapse
Kyle Ellis Let’s build our way out of this
Molly de Aguiar Good journalism won’t be enough
Justin Kosslyn The year journalists become digital security experts
Raney Aronson-Rath Transparency is the antidote to fake news
Dheerja Kaur Fun with subscription products
Damon Krukowski Reviving the alt-weekly soul
Cristina Wilson The year of the Instagram Story
Millie Tran and Stine Bauer Dahlberg (Hint: It’s about your brand)
Richard J. Tofel The platforms’ power demands more reporters’ attention
Adam Thomas Sharing is caring: The year of the mentor
Juliette De Maeyer A responsible press criticism
Trushar Barot The Jio-fication of India
Jassim Ahmad Thriving on change
Carrie Brown-Smith Transparency finally takes off
Lucas Graves From algorithms to institutions
Doris Truong Computer vision vs. the Internet vigilantes
Matt Boggie The intellectual equivalent of the Dead Sea