How do I want to start out my 2018 predictions? By saying “I called it” for 2017. Last year, my predictions centered around the high-touch, high-value propositions that content creators needed to put forth in order to ensure their own survival — from niche print titles (like my own, Racquet magazine), to premium/paywalls that have been the lifeblood of news outlets such as The New York Times, to the flourishing world of audio that I get to explore as content director at Acast.
These high-value propositions not only survived in the tumultuous year of our lord 2017 — one that saw digital-first operations like BuzzFeed and Mashable fall far short of revenue projections, slashing jobs and pivoting to video as they frantically tried to find an advertising model to sustain their heavy costs — they thrived. Why? Because they got much of their revenue directly from their audience, proving that in the era of platform dominance, an ad-supported model for journalism might always be a part of the mix, but it can never be the complete picture.
Instead of further gloating, I’ll make some more bold predictions for 2018:
With the acquisition of Audiosearch earlier this month, Apple made a bold move to reclaim some of the territory it had ceded to competitors in the realm of audio discovery. This is a signal that Apple sees the upcoming year of podcasting as one battling between itself, Google, Amazon, and platforms such as Acast — all trying to surface content to a podcast audience that doesn’t yet exist. That these big players don’t yet have a route to monetization, the way that Acast and Megaphone do, isn’t what’s interesting here — it’s that they’re betting on the 70-something percent of Americans who don’t regularly listen to podcasts to start listening through new ways of discovery.
Search, in-home devices, and native apps are all muscling into a territory that they will help expand quickly, giving podcast creators tremendous new freedom in storytelling formats and even revenue models. When podcasting reaches its potential size, looking more like peak radio penetration thanks to these many new and improved sources of discovery, we’ll start to see several revenue models arise to support the diversity of content now possible by untethering the form from RSS — short-form, daily, one-offs — supported by ads, subscription, or in-app purchasing like Acast Plus and many others, finally yielding the diversity that has always been podcasting’s essential promise.
I see the consumption models of content eventually hovering around two ends of a spectrum of engagement. On one hand, an atomized stream of content delivered around algorithmically and socially derived recommendations served to us via tech platforms — from Google Home to Twitter to Instagram — all interconnected and constantly calibrating to make sure we’re getting the most relevant content served up to us in our hands.
And on the other end of the spectrum, a complete lean-back experience, served to us when we barely remember we asked for it (hopefully inciting some whimsy and surprise), in a format that focuses our complete immersion in the experience. Of course, I’m talking about Racquet magazine — a print-only product we ship four times a year — filled with stories that we deem interesting, that have underappreciated subject matters, headlines that you’d never click on, and images you can’t encounter in a Google search. To enjoy our magazine, and the many, many other quarterlies that continue to pop up, you must completely surrender to the idea that you have almost no control over the content experience — your trust is our hands.
Caitlin Thompson is director of content for Acast and publisher of Racquet.
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Caitria O'Neill The new court of public opinion
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David Skok Finding an information-life balance
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Millie Tran and Stine Bauer Dahlberg (Hint: It’s about your brand)
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Tim Carmody Watch out for Spotify
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C.W. Anderson The social media apocalypse
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Rodney Benson Better, less read, and less trusted
Pete Brown Push alerts, personalized
Richard Tofel The platforms’ power demands more reporters’ attention
P. Kim Bui The reckoning is only beginning
Emma Carew Grovum Newsroom culture becomes a priority
Eric Nuzum Beyond the narrative arc
Renée Kaplan The year of quiet adjustments (shhh)
Monika Bauerlein The firehose of falsehood
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Yvonne Leow The rise of video messaging
Jarrod Dicker Honesty in advertising
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Jacqui Cheng Retailers move into content
Manoush Zomorodi Self-help as a publishing strategy
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Carlos Martínez de la Serna The new journalism commons
Mike Caulfield Refactoring media literacy for the networked age
Monique Judge Letting black women tell their own stories
Alfred Hermida Going beyond mobile-first
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Jim Brady With the people, not just of the people
Bill Keller A growing turn to philanthropy
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Gordon Crovitz Serving readers over advertisers
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Kyle Ellis Let’s build our way out of this
Matt Boggie The intellectual equivalent of the Dead Sea
Matt Carlson Attacks on the press will get worse
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Joanne McNeil Gatekeeping the gatekeepers
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Jennifer Brandel and Mónica Guzmán The editorial meeting of the future
Eric Ulken The year local publishers get smart(er) about change
Andrew Haeg The year journalists become relationship builders
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Frédéric Filloux External forces
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Matt DeRienzo A recession, then a collapse
Miguel Castro The arrival of the impact producer
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Joanne Lipman Journalists inventing revenue streams
Marie Gilot No assholes allowed
Susie Banikarim R.I.P. Pivot to Video (2017–2017)
Edward Roussel Eyes, ears, and brains
Sam Sanders Shine the light on ourselves
Elizabeth Jensen Show your work
Corey Johnson The pro-fact resistance
Craig Newmark Working together toward sustainable solutions
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Claire Wardle Disinformation gets worse
Julia Beizer A longer view on the pivot
Cory Haik Suffering from realness, pivoting to impact
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Mario García Storytelling finally adapts to mobile
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Alan Soon The rise of start of psychographic, micro-targeted media
Corey Ford The empire strikes back
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Laura E. Davis Writing answers before you know the question
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Alexios Mantzarlis Moving fake news research out of the lab
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José Zamora Revenue-first journalism
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Brian Lam Sketchy ethics around product reviews
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Carrie Brown-Smith Transparency finally takes off
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Michelle Ferrier The year of the great reckoning
Evie Nagy Pivot to mobile video frustration
Matt Thompson Here come the attention managers
Borja Echevarría TV goes digital, digital goes TV
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Vanessa K. DeLuca Women’s voices take center stage
Nicholas Quah Stop talking trash about young people
Ståle Grut Reclaiming audience interaction from social networks
Juliette De Maeyer A responsible press criticism
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